It’s not going be without irony, that the party that has been governing this country for almost a quarter of a century, the ANC, will be reassured, even cocky, on Saturday when it launches its election manifesto for the May poll.
Party president Cyril Ramaphosa is scheduled to address the party faithful, who are expected to fill the 85,000 capacity Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban to the brim.
The occasion, ostensibly a box-ticking exercise to kick off parties’ election campaigns, will be broadcast nationwide to millions of television viewers and radio listeners.
If you are still wondering what the ANC thinks of itself as it approaches its most crucial election to date, look no further than Ramaphosa’s words – and monastic silences – when he spoke on Tuesday in Durban at an occasion to mark the 107th birthday of the oldest liberation movement on the continent.
Ramaphosa reckons “the country has changed immeasurably” over the past 25 years and “the lives of the South African people have improved”.
The government has made strides in providing electricity, running water and three million houses, as well as better access to healthcare, which has in turn increased the life expectancy of many people.
“In 1994, only three in every 10 South Africans had electricity – today eight out of 10 South Africans have electricity in their homes. In 1994, only six out of every 10 South Africans had access to clean drinking water – today that has increased to nearly nine out 10 South Africans,” he said, waxing lyrical about free education provided for primary school children, as well as the feeding schemes providing the necessary nutrition for these children.
“Every day, we feed nine million children. There is not a single country that I know, that feeds nine million children, from Monday to Friday, every week of the month, every month of the year ... it only happens in South Africa.”
Freedom also “unleashed the creative energies of our people in sports, arts, music, literature, film and dance”, he said, and “opened new frontiers in the world of science, technology and innovation”.
The ANC knows that it would be lying if it was to claim that it has done its best with the resources, support and goodwill that we entrusted it with over the past 25 years.
It’s for that reason that he flagged corruption.
“We have taken bold steps to confront corruption and state capture, and restore the credibility of public institutions.”
Within a year Ramaphosa has ensured:
● The appointment, through an open process, of a credible head of the National Prosecuting Authority, which for years former ANC president Jacob Zuma used as his playground to evade prosecution;
● The SA Police Service has a new permanent national police commissioner and the man who was there before, Khomotso Phahlane, is out and can now go and deal with being implicated in corruption;
● Berning Ntlemeza and Richard Mdluli, the once dodgy characters that led critical priority crimes unit the Hawks and Crime Intelligence respectively, are gone;
● The controversial Arthur Fraser is no longer in charge of state security.
A year ago, Fraser was still wielding power at the State Security Agency despite revelations that he was allegedly running a parallel intelligence operation and had even installed a personal server at his home.
There were suggestions he was abusing the shadowy world of spooks and spies for his own personal agenda;
● And Tom Moyane is fighting for his life after being suspended as head of Sars.
The steady erosion of state law enforcement agencies’ ability to deal decisively with powerful criminals, of which the ANC has a fair share, is what led to the situation in which South Africans speak “in despair and frustration about the mistakes we have made”, as Ramaphosa rather mildly and peculiarly described it on Tuesday.
The programme the former liberation movement once had for the country was “diverted”, he claimed.
The question is: by whom? Right by Ramaphosa’s side on Tuesday, Zuma was unflinching and wouldn’t even wince as Ramaphosa alluded to the failures of their movement he at least dared to mention, many of which started, or at least became so pronounced, under the previous president’s watch.
While Ramaphosa and company have the task of undoing the damage – mind you he was Zuma’s deputy – Zuma is spending the inordinate amounts of free time he has on his hands mounting a well-calculated low-intensity war whose aim is to ensure that, with his cohorts, they continue the looting and plundering of state resources, while doing everything possible to stay away from jail.
With the changes in the upper echelons of state law enforcement agencies, the room to manoeuvre for the thieves and thugs ought to get smaller, and South Africans are taking note and appreciating, even the baby steps.
Having succeeded in keeping Zuma away from the till by recalling him early in 2018, even if on Tuesday Ramaphosa omitted significant parts of his written speech that went into detail about corruption, and even if on Saturday he gets booed by Zuma’s sympathisers or a rented crowd, he has made it difficult for the ANC’s challengers.
That’s why when Ramaphosa ends his speech on Saturday he will make a prediction – that the ANC will win the election overall.
And he won’t be wrong. Independent polls say as much.
The outstanding question after his manifesto unveiling, therefore, will be by what margin, that is the extent to which they narrow the gap and spread the rest of the spoils among themselves.
It’s still ANC versus ANC. How ironic, indeed.