SA will feel effects of Brexit

THE United Kingdom is eating itself up alive. The consequences for the world will be profound. On Thursday, the UK will vote in a referendum to decide whether to stay in the European Union (EU) or to opt out of the organisation of 28 member nations.

From here on the southern tip of Africa it may seem like a far-away debate, but it may have repercussions which will reach us here sooner rather than later.

A “Leave” vote will no doubt be devastating for the UK. Already, the pound has taken a beating against major currencies. Business leaders and economists are predicting massive job losses and an economy that will stall. There is, however, another greater danger. It is that Brexit, as it is called, will lead to the break-up of the EU and its tempering effect on Nazi-type radical nationalism, fascism and racism in Europe.

Already, in France, the right-wing National Front leader Marine le Pen continues to gain ground and is a serious contender for the presidency in next year’s election.

In Germany, the racist, right-wing Alternative for Germany has seen massive support in recent times by beating an anti-immigration drum.

In the UK, the pressure for exiting the EU emanates from the right-wing, anti-immigration UK Independence Party (Ukip) leader Nigel Farage, a man who has claimed there is a higher risk of sex attacks by migrants if the UK stays in the EU.

On Friday, Le Pen gave a fiery speech at a beer-swilling rally of European far-right “patriots” in Austria.

She claimed that by exiting the EU the UK was regaining its liberty and its freedom to trade with whom it pleases.

Her message is eerily akin to the words of the man accused of stabbing, shooting and killing Labour MP Jo Cox last week in the UK.

In court on Saturday, Thomas Mair gave his name as “death to traitors, freedom for Britain”.

What does all this mean? Europe is in danger of falling apart into tiny little fascist, nationalistic enclaves of the type that existed before World War 2.

The UK itself may very well disintegrate. Scotland may want another referendum on leaving the UK, and then England and Wales will be left all alone while the Scottish tribe drifts away.

Politically, Britain’s governing Conservative Party is so divided over the issue it makes our ANC’s fissures look as sedate as the queen’s summer garden party. Already, there is talk that whatever the result of the referendum, Prime Minister David Cameron will face a revolt from within his own party.

Newspapers report darkly that Boris Johnson, the pro-Brexit former mayor of London, is preparing to “move” against Cameron after Thursday.

Daily Mail columnist Stephen Glover wrote: “I foresee months, if not years, of internecine warfare among Conservatives.”

How did the UK get to this point?

How did it get to a situation where business leaders are warning that the UK faces an economic meltdown if it decides to leave the EU, while the “Brexiteers” warn that staying in means being controlled from Brussels while foreigners “flood” (that sounds familiar, doesn’t it?) the country?

Sadly, Cameron is to blame. After negotiations with the EU in 2013, and right-wing pressure, particularly from Ukip leader Farage’s strident anti-immigrant rantings, Cameron promised a referendum on staying in or out of the EU.

He thought he could get away with a “sensible” result.

The gambit has blown up in his face and now the “Brexiteers” are on the rise.

Last week, a poll for the Evening Standard newspaper showed that the campaign to leave Europe was gaining ground with 53% of Britons now wanting to leave and 47% wanting to stay.

What now? The world is worried about the prospect of the UK turning its back on the EU, and essentially the world.

US Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen revealed last week that US interest rates were being held steady partly because of EU jitters.

For me, former British prime minister Gordon Brown made the most salient point about what Brexit would mean.

In the New Statesman magazine, he wrote: “Each of the EU’s 28 member states has abolished capital punishment, tightened gun control laws and championed human rights. We are united by a belief that foreign policy is not just an exercise in protecting interests, but also about advancing ideals. But now this set of beliefs is under fire.”

Thursday’s vote may change the global political architecture in fundamental ways.

An EU without the UK may tip the world back to the fascistic, mean, dangerous political waters of the 1930s.

We will feel the effects – through trade, diplomacy and other ways – here in South Africa.