Aubrey Matshiqi: ANC politics will dictate exit

IF President Jacob Zuma falls, it will be less about what people outside the ANC desire and more about the coincidence between the levels of personal interest on the part of ANC leaders, on the one hand, and internal dynamics such as the balance of support, on the other.

In other words, the almost hysterical optimism that followed the Constitutional Court judgment on the Nkandla security upgrades scandal was, to a large degree, not informed by what is really happening inside the ANC.

Make no mistake, I am not suggesting I have access to what is hidden from every other South African when it comes to internal battles in the governing party.

To make such a claim would be to suggest that I have full access to all the elements of the ANC’s internal politics.

No-one, no matter what our “sources” tell us, has full access to the total reality inside the ANC. In this regard, the president, his supporters and his opponents are no exceptions.

In short, the idea that Zuma is about to fall is as illusory as the contention that he will never fall. To understand whether Zuma will fall or not and, if he does, when that will happen, four things are necessary.

First, we must constantly revise our scenarios and analysis in accordance with changes in facts and political variables. Second, we must be realistic about the difference between personal wishes and political reality.

Third, after we have exhausted all possible scenarios, we must still leave room for the possibility of an event that may fall outside the realm of regular expectations. Fourth, we must not make the mistake of thinking the sentiments of the mainstream media, the middle class and the tweeting and chattering class are universal.

Nor must we, for that matter, assume that, without the guidance of these groups, the poor and the working class are incapable of rational thought. That said, how did we get to this point? One of the main culprits is our political system. While it has been getting less uncompetitive, it remains largely uncompetitive.

This means opposition parties cannot be as effective in performing the tasks of agents of restraint as they would in a competitive system. It also means the governing party can, to some extent, still afford to make injudicious political and leadership choices.

These choices include defending the indefensible in the interests of the party leader and the dominant faction, which is confused with acting in the interests of the ANC these days.

In short, because the factional decisions of the decade between 2005 and last year are now coming home to roost, the chicken coop at the private residence of the president is a critical security feature.

One of the ironies of the current situation, though, is the fact that the SACP is now one of the political forces opposed to Zuma, when it was part of the factional dynamics that produced his presidency.

We are here partly because too many on both sides of the Zuma-Thabo Mbeki factional dynamic eschewed strategic considerations in favour of narrow tactical gains. As matters stand, it seems this recent history is about to repeat itself.

So, when will Zuma fall? Honestly, I don’t know. And, if he does fall, I’m not sure he and his supporters will go quietly.

Certain configurations of the balance of forces and support inside and outside the ANC may introduce an element of the Samson complex into current political equations. It is not uninteresting that UDM leader Bantu Holomisa has argued that there should be no need for violence.

Maybe he had a vision of Zuma and his supporters pulling down the pillars of our democracy to destroy everything beneath it. Ultimately, self-interest will be a major component of the decision to recall or not to recall the president.

As for the impeachment proceedings, the less said about that the better.

What is important is what the Constitutional Court judgment connotes.

The judgment is possibly about a conflict in values between the president and our constitution.

It is also about the extent to which the ANC, under Zuma, has become increasingly ambivalent towards democratic values. But more important is the possibility that what the ANC has become, and what it used to be, are no longer on the same moral orbit. The ANC is in dire need of moral re-engineering. Aubrey Matshiqi is an independent political analyst.

This article first appeared in Business Day.