SA’s next five years will be confusing, contradictory, full of progress and setbacks, hope and fear.
That is because we are now in full transition from unfettered ANC rule to something new and unknown.
Our current government structure is an experiment, and what lies beyond it is work for the scenario planners and the futurists.
We know the things we will not get from some of our political parties.
The DA is not interested in social cohesion, so I don’t expect the country to become in any way a united force if that party comes to power.
Sure, maybe we will rally around the Bokke for a game or two, but then the party’s Renaldo Gouws and other emboldened racists will swiftly remind some of us, using the k-word that Gouws loves so much, that we should all be killed.
And the DA leader will give him a promotion via an email written by its leader’s chief of staff, a man who platforms and amplifies Nazi sympathisers.
The MK party has shown no interest in discussing the economy or building an environment that encourages the kind of entrepreneurship that creates jobs, so I do not expect that the party will give us the 6% to 7% annual growth we need to start firing up as a country.
The party of Jacob Zuma, who in 2009 inherited a glittering economy from Thabo Mbeki and proceeded to bring it to its knees, will implement his state capture programme as soon as he rises to power again.
Which makes the path to the 2029 elections extremely interesting — and full of bumps as every political party tries to position itself for supremacy.
But first, the local government elections are 24 months away.
Unless a new and game-changing entrant comes up, the MK party will continue its remarkable rise of the past eight months, thus worsening the uncertainties of the current period.
Say what you will about its leadership or lack thereof, its murky policies or their non-existence, the party is on a roll.
Every week it attracts political figures from marginal parties, other mid-sized opposition parties such as the EFF, and disgruntled ANC members.
Don’t fool yourself that these new MK party members believe in anything meaningful.
They don’t. They believe in Zuma, his ability to weaken the ANC, and the fact that positions are there for the taking in the MK party.
With 24 months to go to the local elections, it means that we are in election season already, just three months after the national poll that gave us the government of national unity (GNU).
The tensions and the intense competition for supremacy at local level that these municipal elections bring about will be the first major test of durability for the GNU.
As we are already seeing from ward by-elections and some campus elections, the MK party is continuing its fantastic run of chomping at the ANC and EFF’s support.
The party offers a chance for many activists of the two parties who were deferring to their leaders to break free and chart a new path for themselves.
Floyd Shivambu, the EFF number two who for years tolerated humiliations from Julius Malema, wanted to break free, breathe, and be seen as his own man.
There are many others like him throughout the EFF structures, and they will do as he has done.
The same humiliations and defeats the ANC suffered on May 29 in KwaZulu-Natal and elsewhere will be repeated — and perhaps even extended — in the 2026 elections unless there is an implosion in the MK party.
In the short term, I don’t expect this to happen, which means a period of pain lies ahead for the party of Cyril Ramaphosa.
The DA and the other small parties in the GNU — such as the Patriotic Alliance and the Freedom Front Plus — face a dilemma.
On the campaign trail they have to blast the ANC, but at the same time they have an opportunity to showcase their abilities by staying in the GNU and performing.
Take someone like the home affairs minister, Leon Schreiber. The man is relishing the position and every day demonstrates what a committed individual in that role can do.
For the DA, he is a wonderful example of what the party may want to tell the electorate it is capable of.
It may want to stay with him for a few more years for this free publicity. Ditto with Gayton McKenzie at sport and culture. Ditto the FF+ fellow at correctional services.
For the ANC, unless it changes its attitude and dumps its culture of sloth and arrogance, the GNU may be dangerous.
It may find itself losing face to a high-performing DA and others, and may then turn to the likes of the MK party for a continued stay in power.
SA would lose out on service delivery. Nothing is guaranteed in these uncertain times.
HeraldLIVE
Upcoming municipal elections first major test of durability for GNU
Columnist
SA’s next five years will be confusing, contradictory, full of progress and setbacks, hope and fear.
That is because we are now in full transition from unfettered ANC rule to something new and unknown.
Our current government structure is an experiment, and what lies beyond it is work for the scenario planners and the futurists.
We know the things we will not get from some of our political parties.
The DA is not interested in social cohesion, so I don’t expect the country to become in any way a united force if that party comes to power.
Sure, maybe we will rally around the Bokke for a game or two, but then the party’s Renaldo Gouws and other emboldened racists will swiftly remind some of us, using the k-word that Gouws loves so much, that we should all be killed.
And the DA leader will give him a promotion via an email written by its leader’s chief of staff, a man who platforms and amplifies Nazi sympathisers.
The MK party has shown no interest in discussing the economy or building an environment that encourages the kind of entrepreneurship that creates jobs, so I do not expect that the party will give us the 6% to 7% annual growth we need to start firing up as a country.
The party of Jacob Zuma, who in 2009 inherited a glittering economy from Thabo Mbeki and proceeded to bring it to its knees, will implement his state capture programme as soon as he rises to power again.
Which makes the path to the 2029 elections extremely interesting — and full of bumps as every political party tries to position itself for supremacy.
But first, the local government elections are 24 months away.
Unless a new and game-changing entrant comes up, the MK party will continue its remarkable rise of the past eight months, thus worsening the uncertainties of the current period.
Say what you will about its leadership or lack thereof, its murky policies or their non-existence, the party is on a roll.
Every week it attracts political figures from marginal parties, other mid-sized opposition parties such as the EFF, and disgruntled ANC members.
Don’t fool yourself that these new MK party members believe in anything meaningful.
They don’t. They believe in Zuma, his ability to weaken the ANC, and the fact that positions are there for the taking in the MK party.
With 24 months to go to the local elections, it means that we are in election season already, just three months after the national poll that gave us the government of national unity (GNU).
The tensions and the intense competition for supremacy at local level that these municipal elections bring about will be the first major test of durability for the GNU.
As we are already seeing from ward by-elections and some campus elections, the MK party is continuing its fantastic run of chomping at the ANC and EFF’s support.
The party offers a chance for many activists of the two parties who were deferring to their leaders to break free and chart a new path for themselves.
Floyd Shivambu, the EFF number two who for years tolerated humiliations from Julius Malema, wanted to break free, breathe, and be seen as his own man.
There are many others like him throughout the EFF structures, and they will do as he has done.
The same humiliations and defeats the ANC suffered on May 29 in KwaZulu-Natal and elsewhere will be repeated — and perhaps even extended — in the 2026 elections unless there is an implosion in the MK party.
In the short term, I don’t expect this to happen, which means a period of pain lies ahead for the party of Cyril Ramaphosa.
The DA and the other small parties in the GNU — such as the Patriotic Alliance and the Freedom Front Plus — face a dilemma.
On the campaign trail they have to blast the ANC, but at the same time they have an opportunity to showcase their abilities by staying in the GNU and performing.
Take someone like the home affairs minister, Leon Schreiber. The man is relishing the position and every day demonstrates what a committed individual in that role can do.
For the DA, he is a wonderful example of what the party may want to tell the electorate it is capable of.
It may want to stay with him for a few more years for this free publicity. Ditto with Gayton McKenzie at sport and culture. Ditto the FF+ fellow at correctional services.
For the ANC, unless it changes its attitude and dumps its culture of sloth and arrogance, the GNU may be dangerous.
It may find itself losing face to a high-performing DA and others, and may then turn to the likes of the MK party for a continued stay in power.
SA would lose out on service delivery. Nothing is guaranteed in these uncertain times.
HeraldLIVE
Would you like to comment on this article?
Register (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Latest Videos
Most Read
Opinion
Opinion
Opinion
Opinion
Opinion