We had a tough summer season in Southern Africa, with El Niño-induced drought that led to significant crop failures in the region.
Zambia and Zimbabwe, among other places, lost roughly half of the staple maize harvest.
These countries must now rely on imports of maize to stabilise the domestic supplies for the year.
We will likely remain in these challenging conditions until May 2025, when the new season harvest gets into the market.
The impact of the poor harvest is starting to show at household level.
For example, an article in Business Day Africa on August 20 indicates that “Elisa Magosi, the SADC executive secretary, has called for urgent humanitarian assistance, reporting that 68-million people across the region are now at risk of hunger.
The crisis is particularly acute in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have traditionally supplied food, especially maize, to East Africa.
Zambia, previously a key maize exporter, is now dealing with a significant deficit exacerbated by the drought.
It seeks to import at least 500,000 tonnes of maize from Uganda to mitigate the shortfall.
Zambia is not the only country seeking large maize imports.
Consider Zimbabwe, its maize harvest is down roughly 60% from the 2022/2023 production season to an estimated 635,000 tonnes.
This is the lowest harvest since the 2015/2016 production season, another drought year.
Moreover, the drought is not the only reason for the fall in Zimbabwe’s maize harvest; though a significant factor, the decline in fertiliser usage has also contributed to poor yields.
The fertiliser prices, while down from the previous year, are remarkably above the pre-Covid-19 levels, thus adding financial strain on poor smallholder farmers, the majority of producers in Zimbabwe.
The fertiliser makes up roughly a third of the grain farmers’ input costs.
This significant decline in Zimbabwe’s maize production means that the import needs will increase sharply.
Zimbabwe’s domestic maize consumption is typically at about two-million tonnes.
Thus, the US department of agriculture’s Pretoria-based analysts’ estimate that Zimbabwe may need to import at least a million tonnes in the new marketing year of 2024/2025 is convincing (the 2024/2025 marketing year corresponds with the 2023/2024 production season).
Such an import figure is a significant increase from Zimbabwe’s maize imports of 637,327 tonnes in the 2023/2024 marketing year, all from SA.
Unlike the 2023/2024 marketing year, where SA’s overall maize exports were 3.4-million tonnes, in the new 2024/2025 marketing year, SA’s maize exports will likely fall to 1.85-million tonnes, according to estimates from the South African Supply and Demand Estimates Committee.
This is on the back of a poor domestic harvest.
SA’s maize harvest is estimated at 13.34-million tonnes, down 19% from the previous season because of the mid-summer drought.
This volume comprises both white and yellow maize.
White maize is about 6.35-million tonnes (down 26% year on year), and yellow maize is at 6.99-million tonnes (down 12% year on year).
The forecast exports of 1.85-million tonnes will primarily be for the Southern Africa region.
In fact, between May and the first week of August 2024, SA had already exported 567,000 tonnes out of the expected 1.85-million tonnes.
The principal beneficiary is Zimbabwe and a range of neighbouring African countries.
Admittedly, SA did not experience a sharp fall in production, unlike Zimbabwe or Zambia, where the domestic maize harvests are down by more than 50%.
Part of the reason is differences in farming practices and the improved seed cultivars in SA, among other factors.
The significant difference is using improved seed cultivars, fertiliser and agrochemicals.
Irrigation is not a major factor, as only 10% of South African maize is under irrigation, and the rest is rain-fed.
This is similar to Zimbabwe’s maize proportion under irrigation.
In essence, we have spent the past few months highlighting the impact of the drought on farms, but now we are seeing it on the consumers.
The next couple of months will likely be challenging in the region, with the hope for relief from the next season’s agricultural harvest.
The preliminary estimates from various weather services suggest we may be moving to a La Niña period that would bring rain.
Until then, the conditions are worrying outside SA.
• Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics
Impact of drought beginning to reach consumers
Columnist
We had a tough summer season in Southern Africa, with El Niño-induced drought that led to significant crop failures in the region.
Zambia and Zimbabwe, among other places, lost roughly half of the staple maize harvest.
These countries must now rely on imports of maize to stabilise the domestic supplies for the year.
We will likely remain in these challenging conditions until May 2025, when the new season harvest gets into the market.
The impact of the poor harvest is starting to show at household level.
For example, an article in Business Day Africa on August 20 indicates that “Elisa Magosi, the SADC executive secretary, has called for urgent humanitarian assistance, reporting that 68-million people across the region are now at risk of hunger.
The crisis is particularly acute in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have traditionally supplied food, especially maize, to East Africa.
Zambia, previously a key maize exporter, is now dealing with a significant deficit exacerbated by the drought.
It seeks to import at least 500,000 tonnes of maize from Uganda to mitigate the shortfall.
Zambia is not the only country seeking large maize imports.
Consider Zimbabwe, its maize harvest is down roughly 60% from the 2022/2023 production season to an estimated 635,000 tonnes.
This is the lowest harvest since the 2015/2016 production season, another drought year.
Moreover, the drought is not the only reason for the fall in Zimbabwe’s maize harvest; though a significant factor, the decline in fertiliser usage has also contributed to poor yields.
The fertiliser prices, while down from the previous year, are remarkably above the pre-Covid-19 levels, thus adding financial strain on poor smallholder farmers, the majority of producers in Zimbabwe.
The fertiliser makes up roughly a third of the grain farmers’ input costs.
This significant decline in Zimbabwe’s maize production means that the import needs will increase sharply.
Zimbabwe’s domestic maize consumption is typically at about two-million tonnes.
Thus, the US department of agriculture’s Pretoria-based analysts’ estimate that Zimbabwe may need to import at least a million tonnes in the new marketing year of 2024/2025 is convincing (the 2024/2025 marketing year corresponds with the 2023/2024 production season).
Such an import figure is a significant increase from Zimbabwe’s maize imports of 637,327 tonnes in the 2023/2024 marketing year, all from SA.
Unlike the 2023/2024 marketing year, where SA’s overall maize exports were 3.4-million tonnes, in the new 2024/2025 marketing year, SA’s maize exports will likely fall to 1.85-million tonnes, according to estimates from the South African Supply and Demand Estimates Committee.
This is on the back of a poor domestic harvest.
SA’s maize harvest is estimated at 13.34-million tonnes, down 19% from the previous season because of the mid-summer drought.
This volume comprises both white and yellow maize.
White maize is about 6.35-million tonnes (down 26% year on year), and yellow maize is at 6.99-million tonnes (down 12% year on year).
The forecast exports of 1.85-million tonnes will primarily be for the Southern Africa region.
In fact, between May and the first week of August 2024, SA had already exported 567,000 tonnes out of the expected 1.85-million tonnes.
The principal beneficiary is Zimbabwe and a range of neighbouring African countries.
Admittedly, SA did not experience a sharp fall in production, unlike Zimbabwe or Zambia, where the domestic maize harvests are down by more than 50%.
Part of the reason is differences in farming practices and the improved seed cultivars in SA, among other factors.
The significant difference is using improved seed cultivars, fertiliser and agrochemicals.
Irrigation is not a major factor, as only 10% of South African maize is under irrigation, and the rest is rain-fed.
This is similar to Zimbabwe’s maize proportion under irrigation.
In essence, we have spent the past few months highlighting the impact of the drought on farms, but now we are seeing it on the consumers.
The next couple of months will likely be challenging in the region, with the hope for relief from the next season’s agricultural harvest.
The preliminary estimates from various weather services suggest we may be moving to a La Niña period that would bring rain.
Until then, the conditions are worrying outside SA.
• Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics
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