Let's be real.
There is unlikely to be a split in the DA – at least not the kind that is being spoken about currently.
On Sunday the City Press reported that some senior DA leaders were angry about its transformation and policy direction under Mmusi Maimane.
A number of senior leaders and MPs were said to be in talks with Western Cape premier Helen Zille to possibly lead the new outfit.
The group reportedly wants to form a true liberal party committed to the DA’s core values.
We are told that they have reached out to the Institute of Race Relations to help guide the process.
The speculation itself is not new and, of course, political party breakaways are not uncommon in South Africa.
The result is almost always the same – poor electoral performance by the breakaway party and a political weakening of the historic one.
This is why the news of a possible split in the DA sparked excitement among its opponents this week.
But Maimane and those reported to be involved in the conspiracy have rejected the claims, saying there are no plans to form a breakaway party. They are probably correct. It is common cause that there is unprecedented turmoil in the DA, but it is unlikely that those who ultimately hold the balance of power in its ranks will up and leave their party.
Regardless of how unhappy they may be with Maimane’s brand of politics, they have more to lose by abandoning a party they have spent much of their political lives working to build. They are too invested in it.
They are also not political rookies. They have been around long enough to know that the South African voter is loyal to an established political brand rather than individuals – even if those individuals are regarded as deeply popular in some constituencies.
Recent history has also shown us that voters have very little appetite for new political formations. Ask Mamphela Ramphele.
Maimane’s detractors are most certainly mindful that forming a political party to contest an election in a year’s time would be counter-intuitive.
Further, there is no evidence to suggest that there is a massive market of liberals in this country.
If anything, such a breakaway may largely be perceived as a right-wing interest group which is intolerant of transformation.
So where would it get the votes it needs to secure the 10 or even five seats it is said to be eyeing in parliament?
Put differently, why would they leave a party that has begun to govern some parts of the country simply because they do not like some things said by its leader? It does not make sense.
Second, the individuals said to be planning to leave have no compelling reason to do so.The recent DA congress at which Maimane was re-elected unopposed also revealed some insights into the power dynamics of the party.
The introduction of the so-called diversity clause into the DA’s constitution was a case in point.
The contestation over this clause and the subsequent compromise – somewhat a departure from what Maimane had initially proposed – demonstrates that the DA leader does not have unchallenged power in the party.
Of course, depending on where you stand on the matter, this can be viewed as either a sign of Maimane’s poor grip on the party or an indication of a healthy and vibrant internal democracy.
The point is even if Maimane’s detractors within the DA are increasingly uneasy with what has been termed his “ANC lite” ideological approach, the balance of power is such that it may be easier for them to rein him in on matters they differ on, than to leave altogether.
Therefore, rumours of a split, in my view, are the least of Maimane’s problems.
The bigger challenge on his hands is leading an executive that differs profoundly on the definition of liberalism and what it means in the context of South Africa.
This goes beyond an academic framing of the DA’s ideology.
It is about the material differences in how individual leaders in the DA see our country, its problems and potential solutions.
For example, the very existence of a debate in the DA’s ranks regarding Maimane’s Freedom Day speech on white privilege and black poverty demonstrates this.
I have yet to meet a DA leader who is outright opposed to the principle of redress. Many will also agree that the race question is inextricably intertwined with the structure of our economy.
How to fix this, however, is where things often get murky.
Liberals place individual merit, rather than race at the centre of one’s progress.
Therefore, many in the party, white and black, believe that racially targeted developmental interventions are exclusionary, undermine the principle of merit and betray the DA’s liberal values.
There is, of course, an argument to be made about race and merit not being mutually exclusive. But that is an argument for another day.
My point is they believe Maimane’s flirtation with this kind of redress is inherently flawed.
Regardless of what he says, Maimane will not change this.