The price of food is expected to rise sharply in the new year as a result of the ongoing drought in the Eastern Cape.
Agri Eastern Cape president Dougie Stern said rolling heatwaves, strong winds and little follow-up rain after the September downpour had quickly dispensed with the gains made – and now groundwater, a key resource for farmers, was declining.
He warned that the drought would be disastrous for consumers if it continued – although the prices would still go up, even if it eased.
“If the drought intensifies, then we can expect some disastrous consequences – for example, food prices, in particular meat prices, will increase.”
Stern said one of the factors that would have a massive impact on food prices was the cash flow of farmers, who were already under financial pressure due to the drought.
“The impact will be felt in the new year,” he said.
“The Christmas period normally sees an escalation [in prices] because of the higher demand, but I think the increase in food prices is going to be from January, in the first quarter of the new year, if we don’t get rain.
“But even if we do get good rain, there’s not going to be a surplus of meat because of the impact of the drought over the year.
“As far as vegetables are concerned, it will be much the same thing – the Gamtoos River has a bit of water for the farmers in the Hankey and Patensie area so there will be a certain amount of vegetables planted, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to satisfy the demand.
“So the prices of food will climb, specifically in the early part of next year.”
Komga farmer Monwabisi Matolengwe said the grazing grass was burnt, dams and rivers were dry and livestock and crop farmers were being equally badly affected.
No comment was available from the department of rural development and agrarian reform, but the DA pointed to research indicating that a fresh onset of the dreaded el nino hot weather phenomenon was on its way, and called for an urgent proactive counter-plan to be put in place.
The national department of water affairs said the Eastern Cape’s main supply dams had dropped to a combined level of 62.7% and “heatwaves are becoming stronger week by week”.
Port Elizabeth water consultant David Raymer said the good rains in September were an anomaly and had changed little.
“We were lucky that it fell in the catchments, pushed up the level of our dams and bought us time.
“But we are still in the same drought cycle that we were in.”
Stern said the whole province was bone dry, from Aberdeen to Komga to Matatiele.
“We’ve had extreme cold even in November, followed by extreme heat, so conditions have not been conducive to growth. There are fires all over the place. Not a pip has been planted.
“Lambing and calving is under way, but there is no food for the animals.
“This is our fourth consecutive year of drought and it’s even worse than it was before the September rains because now the water table is faltering, which is a tremendous concern.”
Matolengwe, a member of the African Farmers’ Association of South Africa, said the Quko River, which ran through his 220ha farm, was dry, as were his two dams.
His cattle, goats and chickens were suffering.
“The grazing grass is burnt from the sun. The thorn trees where the goats used to browse have no leaves now or have fallen down.
“The drought will also hinder the animal breeding cycle because there is no food to support it.”
Matolengwe said he travelled widely in the Eastern Cape and had got a clear picture of the situation elsewhere.
“East from here through the Transkei, it is dry,” he said.
“In Ngcobo, people are crying because the rain has not come – it is not yet possible to plough and they can’t plant their maize.
“In Dutywa, the sheep are struggling.
“Here in Komga, one of my neighbours planted potatoes but they died.”
When he started farming in the area in 1997, the first rains came in October and the second in November, preceding a heavier fall in January, Matolengwe said.
“But now it is all changing. I believe it is climate change.
“We got some rain last in August, but it is even worse now than before. The farmers are panicking all over.”
The DA’s Nomvano Zibonda said the drought threatened to destroy the industry in the Eastern Cape and she was in the process of writing to rural development and agrarian reform MEC Xolile Nqatha about the matter.
“I am requesting details on what plans, if any, they have put in place to assist farmers in the face of an extended drought, as well as what steps they are taking to preserve the province’s scarce water resources and mitigate against water losses,” she said.
The drought had already in 2018 debilitated farmers, farm workers and rural villagers and had reduced maize and fodder crop production.
Many farmers had reported the loss of livestock and this would seriously affect the sustainability of their farms.
“The DA is concerned about the impact that an extended drought will have on farmers and, subsequently, food security and employment in the province,” Zibonda said.
“If farms are not producing, there is a decline in demand for seasonal farm workers, which will further aggravate the unemployment crisis in the province.
“We cannot wait until there is a crisis, and then seek financial relief.
“We need to be proactive and ensure that effective, longterm strategies are rolled out that will ensure the sustainability of the province’s agricultural sector.”
Department of water spokesperson Thandile Ngcume said on Wednesday last week that the combined level of the main dams in the province had dropped from 63.7% to 62.7% and in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metro from 54.2% to 53.8%.
“The department is pleading with members of the public to save water by using it wisely and sparingly,” he said.
Questions were sent to the department of rural development on Wednesday but no response had been received by the time of going to print. It looks as if consumers will be hit by a hot, dry and expensive new year as farmers face the disastrous effects of the Eastern Cape’s prolonged drought. The Herald reports today on how the agricultural sector is suffering, with Agri Eastern Cape president Doug Stern noting that the whole province is bone dry, which makes it not only difficult to plant crops but also to raise livestock. The most relevant impact on city dwellers, of course, is that food prices – particularly for meat and fresh produce – are expected to rise sharply in the new year.
This will unfortunately come just at a time when the summer holiday glow is fading and pockets are empty after the festive season.
However, on a wider scale the inevitable increase in the cost of everyday items in the grocery trolley also has an effect on inflation, pushing it higher. This in turn may have a significant – negative – impact on our economy.
September’s rains did push up the level of our dams and bought time, but perhaps it is time farmers – and the authorities – need to re-examine how and what we farm in this province.
This is even more imperative due to the threat of global climate change and the frightening spectre of El Nino rearing its head in the future.
Food security and employment will be affected. There are major concerns here.
This is why the sector cannot wait until there is a crisis and then seek financial relief.
It is imperative that both farmers and the state need to be proactive, and look at effective, long-term strategies to ensure the sustainability of the province’s agricultural sector.
In the end it will fall to government and the farmers to work out ways of averting what seems to be a catastrophe in the making.
We are all in this right now, but they in particular need to look at what can be done now to ensure that this gloomy scenario will not be repeated a year, or even a few months, from now.