IT is nonsense to say the DA has hit a glass ceiling. From 1999 to 2009, it had an average growth rate of 4% per election. It is expected to increase by 5% in the upcoming election and this election will be the first one where the majority of DA voters will be black. My prediction is that it will grow at a higher rate come the next election in 2019.
Only when there is no growth can one talk of a glass ceiling. This growth will come at the expense of both the ANC and the small parties.
This means that the DA can only plan for being a real alternative in, say, 15 years from now – or earlier if the ANC splits along ideological lines.
On the left, the EFF may also show constant growth over the next 15 years, being the only realistic option left of the ANC.
The ANC will then be haemorrhaging votes to both the left and right as corruption and mismanagement continues unabated.
The struggle within the ANC and the tripartite alliance between the free market and socialist elements, and between various factions will continue and will impact on the ANC’s ability to show clear leadership, to wipe out mismanagement and corruption, to set down a clear policy for investors and move South Africa onto a higher growth trajectory.
N Omar, East London